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Some thoughts on Ferguson

11/25/2014

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After staying up until abut 3 a.m. watching live feeds from Ferguson, I woke up today with this song firmly stuck in my head. 
To all of the white folks saying that they, "... Understand the concerns/frustrations of the black community": You can't. There's a difference between sympathy and empathy.

To all of the pundits that are conflating "black-on-black", "white-on-black", "black-on-white" or any permutation thereof with "cop-on-civilian" crime: The (supposed) primary function of police is to prevent shootings, and the chance that an officer will use deadly force against a suspect goes up exponentially if the suspect is of a non-white persuasion.

In the coming days, you will hear the words "Post-Ferguson America," as if somehow the conflagration of a U.S. city is a sort of purge of systemic discrimination and the last 400 years of American history will go up in smoke. The racial divide in America will not be closed until our economic, social, and criminal oppression of minorities is actually, y'know, addressed in a real and meaningful way. We will never get to the "good new days" until we admit that the "good old days" weren't that good.
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Ferguson Live 

11/24/2014

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Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream
This is a live feed from someone's cam on the ground in Ferguson. The indicator in the corner indicates whether the stream is On-Air, or Off-Air.
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Immigration Reform: The Untold Story

11/24/2014

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In the debate over immigration reform, you may hear some folks - most likely Republicans or Tea Party wingnuts - say that illegal immigrants 'don't pay taxes' or 'don't contribute to our society', but this could not be further from the truth.

A nationwide study published in 2013 by the Institute for Tax and Economic Policy calculated that, in 2010, undocumented workers paid approximately $11 billion nationwide in state and local taxes and fees. This would include sales tax, state fees for driver licensing, trash, water , sewer, property and renter taxes, etc. The study also concluded that immigration reform with some measure of amnesty would boost that number by nearly $2 billion. The study showed that undocumented immigrants contributed over $30  million to Rhode Island's tax base, and estimated that - post immigration reform - that number would balloon to over $38 million.

Those advocating for mass deportation should think twice about the effect this would have - not only on our tax base - but  on the cost of goods and services, and our unemployment rate, across the country. Most undocumented immigrants work in low-paying, labor intensive and service industry jobs. These are the folks that harvest and prepare our food, clean our toilets, wash our windows, do our laundry, and mow our lawns. The kind of work that most Americans - even those who lack a high school diploma - are loathe to do.

Then, there is the other segment of the immigrant population that I refer to as the falsely documented workers. These are folks who have a fake or expired work visa, green card or social security number. This segment of the population is more than likely paying state and federal income taxes - including disability insurance and FICA - into a system of which they will never take full advantage.

Sadly, amnesty is merely a prescription to alleviate a symptom, rather than one that addresses the disease. As long as there are employers in the U.S. that are willing to hire undocumented workers for lower-than-minimum wage, and pay them with an envelope of cash at the end of the week, we will always have a problem with illegal immigration in this country. If enforcement of immigration law fell on the mighty job creators, maybe they'd be less inclined to utilize "domestic outsourcing." 

One must also take into consideration the effect of U.S. foreign policy - especially the war on drugs - when addressing immigration. How many people are driven to the U.S. by a drug policy that enables violent drug cartels the world over, or by violent extremist groups that emerge to fight U.S. political meddling or military presence in their countries? These  numbers are difficult to quantify, but there seems to be a widespread acknowledgment that these are major contributors to the immigration crisis in America.
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The Spoiler Myth Debunked

11/23/2014

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It seems Rhode Island conservatives are still a bit sore over Allan Fung's loss in the recent gubernatorial election, and many of them are choosing to blame Bob Healey as the "spoiler" in the race. Fung supporters seem to think that Healey took twice as many votes from Fung as Raimondo, but upon closer inspection, it seems that very few potential Fung voters opted for the Cool Moose instead

In West Greenwich, for instance, Fung won with 1,097 votes; Raimondo took 684 and Healey took 605. In comparison, the Republican candidates for U.S. Congress in the district - Rhue Reis and Mark Zaccaria - took 1,187 and 1,081 respectively. The Democrats in those races - Reed and Langevin - took 1,291 and 1,178 respectively. It seems that in West Greenwich, Fung took nearly all of his base voters, while Healey split potential Raimondo supporters down the middle.

In North Smithfield, the song remains the same:

Raimondo - 1,456             Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 2,421
Fung - 1,870                     Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 1,871
Healey - 986

In Narragansett, it appears that Healey took a couple of hundred votes from Fung and over 1,000 from Raimondo:

Raimondo - 2,395            Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 3,795
Fung - 2,410                    Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 2,149
Healey - 1,198


Even in Providence *, the Republican base seems unshakable, with Fung far outperforming the candidates for congress, and Healey's votes seeming to appear out of the ether:

Raimondo - 24,662            Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 24,072
Fung - 8,445                      Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 3,568
Healey - 4,116

When you look at the election numbers on a district by party basis, it seems that Healey did not cost Fung the election; he cost Raimondo a mandate. In addition to the numbers, I'll offer you the sage words of my friend and statistics uber-wonk, Eric Siegel:
 
Truth: A tiny fraction over 60% of Healey votes (60.4442%) would have had to have gone to Fung instead for the result to have been a tie. But that takes us back to the whole "spoiler" question, which is that if a candidate doesn't get the votes, it means they didn't earn the votes, not that they were "stolen" by another candidate. That assumes that votes belong to candidates and/or parties, not voters.
So there yo have it. R.I. Republicans should take their gains on the national level and in the General Assembly and STFU. With the spoiler myth debunked, and the master lever gone in the next election cycle, they'll have no more bogeymen to blame for "costing us an election" and might actually have to admit that Rhode Island voters don't like their policies or politicians. The next time someone tells you that Fung only lost because Healey "stole" his votes, tell them that it's impossible to steal something from someone that didn't have that thing in the first place. Better yet, send them a link to this blog post!

Don't fault people for voting their conscience rather than for the lesser of two evils. The country would be a much better place if we collectively did just that.

* According to the R.I. Board of Elections, Providence election returns are not all in.
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The Cool Moose and Z-axis Politics

11/21/2014

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On November 4, 69,278 Rhode Islanders - including me - took a pass on two-party politics and cast a vote for the Cool Moose  Robert Healy, Jr. Even the wonkiest politics wonks in the state did not predict such a turnout for a candidate that spent less than $40 on a race for governor, but what does this tell us?

Well, for one, there is clearly a burgeoning dissatisfaction with the major parties and their tug-of-war, zero-sum policies. On the national level, Republicans have become the party of no, and the Democrats have become the party of no spine. In Rhode Island, Republicans are a tragic minority and Democrats have been bifurcated into two camps - the Progressives and the Unimpressives.  Is it any wonder that a third party candidate that offers plans before platitudes can garner nearly a quarter of the vote?

Next, people are absolutely DISGUSTED with the he said- she said, half-truth smearings that spew out of both parties during a campaign. I worked for a campaign during this cycle, and I can tell you that this was the most frequent comment I got from voters. One woman - probably in her late 50's - told me she wasn't voting for the first time in her life. I'd argue that negative campaigning disenfranchises significantly more voters than having to show ID at the polls.

The right-left paradigm needs tweaking. Instead of thinking of conservative vs. liberal as a straight line, lets bend that into a right angle and put conservatism on the x-axis and liberalism on the y-axis. Everyone falls somewhere in this field politically, but the issues that we're facing don't break down along party lines. Plenty of people are out of work, having their homes foreclosed upon, and watching their children's primary educations become a shell - D's and R's alike.

Now imagine, if you will, another axis coming directly out of the intersection of the x-and y- axes. That's the z-axis, and that's where these issues live. The Z-axis is coming straight off of the page and poking us between the eyes, saying, "Hello?! Is anyone in there?" 

Mr. Healy came off as a man with some good ideas, common sense, and most of all, common courtesy afforded to his opponents. He was practicing Z-axis politics, and it would serve Rhode Island well if all of our elected officials spent more time on that axis and less time trying to pull policy up and across the other two. 

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    Dave Fisher

    I am the burr under your saddle. I am the rock in your shoe. I am the limb that appears out of nowhere while you're walking in the woods that you almost walk into and take your eye out. I will afflict the comfortable, comfort the afflicted, and offend those I find offensive. Nothing is true. Everything is permitted.

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