The Spoiler Myth Debunked

It seems Rhode Island conservatives are still a bit sore over Allan Fung's loss in the recent gubernatorial election, and many of them are choosing to blame Bob Healey as the "spoiler" in the race. Fung supporters seem to think that Healey took twice as many votes from Fung as Raimondo, but upon closer inspection, it seems that very few potential Fung voters opted for the Cool Moose instead

In West Greenwich, for instance, Fung won with 1,097 votes; Raimondo took 684 and Healey took 605. In comparison, the Republican candidates for U.S. Congress in the district - Rhue Reis and Mark Zaccaria - took 1,187 and 1,081 respectively. The Democrats in those races - Reed and Langevin - took 1,291 and 1,178 respectively. It seems that in West Greenwich, Fung took nearly all of his base voters, while Healey split potential Raimondo supporters down the middle.

In North Smithfield, the song remains the same:

Raimondo - 1,456             Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 2,421
Fung - 1,870                     Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 1,871
Healey - 986

In Narragansett, it appears that Healey took a couple of hundred votes from Fung and over 1,000 from Raimondo:

Raimondo - 2,395            Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 3,795
Fung - 2,410                    Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 2,149
Healey - 1,198


Even in Providence *, the Republican base seems unshakable, with Fung far outperforming the candidates for congress, and Healey's votes seeming to appear out of the ether:

Raimondo - 24,662            Dem. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 24,072
Fung - 8,445                      Rep. for U.S. Congress (avg.) - 3,568
Healey - 4,116

When you look at the election numbers on a district by party basis, it seems that Healey did not cost Fung the election; he cost Raimondo a mandate. In addition to the numbers, I'll offer you the sage words of my friend and statistics uber-wonk, Eric Siegel: 

Truth: A tiny fraction over 60% of Healey votes (60.4442%) would have had to have gone to Fung instead for the result to have been a tie. But that takes us back to the whole "spoiler" question, which is that if a candidate doesn't get the votes, it means they didn't earn the votes, not that they were "stolen" by another candidate. That assumes that votes belong to candidates and/or parties, not voters.

So there yo have it. R.I. Republicans should take their gains on the national level and in the General Assembly and STFU. With the spoiler myth debunked, and the master lever gone in the next election cycle, they'll have no more bogeymen to blame for "costing us an election" and might actually have to admit that Rhode Island voters don't like their policies or politicians. The next time someone tells you that Fung only lost because Healey "stole" his votes, tell them that it's impossible to steal something from someone that didn't have that thing in the first place. Better yet, send them a link to this blog post!

Don't fault people for voting their conscience rather than for the lesser of two evils. The country would be a much better place if we collectively did just that.

* According to the R.I. Board of Elections, Providence election returns are not all in.